AsiaNewsIran | The World Meteorological Organization released its latest climate update in Antalya on Monday, November 9, 2026, as COP31 opened. The central finding is stark: 2026 is heading into the group of the four hottest years recorded. Reuters reporting published on the same day also identifies that finding.
A nine-month estimate, not a finished year
WMO puts the January–September global near-surface temperature at 1.47°C above the 1850–1900 average, with uncertainty of ±0.13°C. Nine internationally recognized datasets underpin the assessment. This is a global average, not the temperature experienced in a particular city.
The period matters. WMO expects the annual figure to rise as El Niño develops; its final report for the whole of 2026 is due in March 2027. Reporting today’s estimate as a completed annual result would erase that distinction.
Why El Niño changes the outlook
In her November 9 briefing, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo described El Niño as releasing heat already stored in the ocean, rather than creating new planetary heat. She warned that its interaction with an unusually warm climate increases risks and urged preparation for 2027.
The practical issue is not simply whether a record is broken. Forecasts need to reach people early enough to support decisions about heat exposure, water, farming and emergency preparedness. A global warning is a reason to consult relevant local forecasts, not a forecast for every place on Earth.
What the Paris temperature limit means
WMO’s separate May 2026 outlook explains that the Paris Agreement’s temperature levels concern warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years. A hot month, a nine-month average and a full calendar year therefore answer different questions from a long-term climate measure.
That distinction is not a reason to dismiss short-term records. It is a way to avoid claiming that one number, by itself, proves a permanent crossing of a long-term threshold.
Three checks before comparing climate figures
- Check the period: a provisional part-year estimate is not a full-year result.
- Check the baseline: comparisons need the same reference period.
- Check the meaning: observations, forecasts and negotiated goals are different things.
What readers should watch next
- Updated observations as the remaining months of 2026 are assessed.
- Local and regional forecasts rather than assumed uniform effects from El Niño.
- Actual decisions at COP31, distinguished from speeches and proposals.
Our COP31 guide to dates, finance and decisions explains the conference process. Today’s scientific update is fresh evidence for those discussions; it is not a climate agreement.
AsiaNewsIran will distinguish measured conditions from projections and political commitments. The immediate takeaway is to take the warning seriously while keeping its dates, uncertainty and scope visible.